This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2022 | Current | 74 | 8.16 | 5.56 | 3.00 | ||
Estimated | 300 | 8.01 | 5.86 | 3.23 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
Description |
Oathsworn is a Twisting Tales Game for 1-4 players where play is focused on narrative choices and rich miniature combat encounters. The game is set in the Deepwood where a Free company (the Oathsworn) fights for humanity's survival against unnatural horrors and the Deepwood itself. |
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2022 | Shadowborne Games | Jamie Jolly | Francesca Baerald | Adventure | Category: Dungeon Crawler | Action Points | ||
Dongjun Lu | Card Game | Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Card Play Conflict Resolution | |||||
Dongbiao Lu | Dice | Mechanism: Campaign Games | Cooperative Game | |||||
Sean Jackson | Exploration | Players: Games with Solitaire Rules | Deck, Bag, and Pool Building | |||||
Vladimir Buchyk | Fantasy | Theme: Boss Battle | Dice Rolling | |||||
Fighting | Hand Management | |||||||
Medieval | Hexagon Grid | |||||||
Miniatures | Modular Board | |||||||
Mythology | Pattern Recognition | |||||||
Novel-based | Push Your Luck | |||||||
Puzzle | Role Playing | |||||||
Storytelling | ||||||||
Variable Player Powers | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/251661
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
What games are similar to Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
The table below displays games with the most similar data to Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 1.00 | 5.56 | 8.16 | 3.23 | 74 | ||
1 | 2019 | 0.88 | 5.87 | 7.93 | 3.47 | 350 | ||
2 | 2017 | 0.88 | 6.15 | 7.73 | 3.17 | 848 | ||
3 | 2018 | 0.86 | 5.70 | 7.06 | 1.85 | 388 | ||
4 | 2018 | 0.85 | 5.89 | 7.14 | 2.80 | 668 | ||
5 | 2019 | 0.83 | 6.13 | 8.11 | 3.60 | 658 | ||
6 | 2019 | 0.83 | 5.65 | 7.09 | 3.10 | 225 | ||
7 | 2018 | 0.82 | 5.57 | 7.42 | 2.00 | 82 | ||
8 | 2019 | 0.81 | 5.97 | 7.94 | 2.29 | 533 | ||
9 | 2019 | 0.81 | 6.96 | 8.80 | 4.02 | 1,868 | ||
10 | 2016 | 0.80 | 5.61 | 7.32 | 3.50 | 147 | ||
11 | 2018 | 0.80 | 6.09 | 7.66 | 2.93 | 793 | ||
12 | 2018 | 0.80 | 6.34 | 7.92 | 2.90 | 1,187 | ||
13 | 2013 | 0.79 | 5.63 | 6.09 | 3.37 | 624 | ||
14 | 2020 | 0.79 | 5.70 | 8.04 | 4.15 | 187 | ||
15 | 2020 | 0.79 | 6.63 | 8.04 | 3.45 | 1,960 | ||
16 | 2015 | 0.79 | 6.32 | 7.51 | 2.73 | 1,422 | ||
17 | 2020 | 0.79 | 5.54 | 7.23 | 2.71 | 79 | ||
18 | 2017 | 0.79 | 6.08 | 6.53 | 2.02 | 2,673 | ||
19 | 2016 | 0.79 | 7.77 | 8.01 | 2.67 | 29,837 | ||
20 | 2018 | 0.79 | 5.95 | 8.63 | 2.21 | 415 | ||
21 | 2017 | 0.78 | 6.35 | 7.05 | 2.24 | 2,625 | ||
22 | 2017 | 0.78 | 6.42 | 7.59 | 3.10 | 1,698 | ||
23 | 2017 | 0.78 | 5.54 | 6.61 | 3.33 | 116 | ||
24 | 2019 | 0.78 | 5.89 | 7.98 | 3.29 | 386 | ||
25 | 2011 | 0.78 | 6.66 | 7.12 | 2.61 | 6,184 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
What games are similar to Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2022 | 5.56 | 1.00 | 5.56 | 8.16 | 3.23 | 74 | ||
1 | 2016 | 6.12 | 0.79 | 7.77 | 8.01 | 2.67 | 29,837 | ||
2 | 2017 | 5.79 | 0.74 | 7.81 | 8.42 | 3.85 | 8,441 | ||
3 | 2011 | 5.70 | 0.72 | 7.87 | 8.09 | 4.33 | 30,004 | ||
4 | 2013 | 5.62 | 0.75 | 7.54 | 7.78 | 3.32 | 32,251 | ||
5 | 2019 | 5.61 | 0.81 | 6.96 | 8.80 | 4.02 | 1,868 | ||
6 | 2015 | 5.57 | 0.72 | 7.72 | 8.58 | 4.26 | 8,359 | ||
7 | 2019 | 5.45 | 0.72 | 7.59 | 8.22 | 3.30 | 8,851 | ||
8 | 2017 | 5.41 | 0.88 | 6.15 | 7.73 | 3.17 | 848 | ||
9 | 2015 | 5.40 | 0.74 | 7.30 | 7.48 | 2.60 | 25,566 | ||
10 | 2012 | 5.40 | 0.77 | 7.04 | 7.27 | 2.72 | 17,977 | ||
11 | 2017 | 5.39 | 0.76 | 7.07 | 7.97 | 4.07 | 4,242 | ||
12 | 2014 | 5.35 | 0.77 | 6.98 | 7.96 | 3.35 | 3,629 | ||
13 | 2015 | 5.26 | 0.77 | 6.80 | 7.34 | 2.71 | 5,165 | ||
14 | 2011 | 5.25 | 0.77 | 6.81 | 6.97 | 2.35 | 23,535 | ||
15 | 2011 | 5.24 | 0.78 | 6.73 | 7.23 | 2.58 | 5,939 | ||
16 | 2020 | 5.24 | 0.79 | 6.63 | 8.04 | 3.45 | 1,960 | ||
17 | 2018 | 5.24 | 0.72 | 7.24 | 8.73 | 4.02 | 2,265 | ||
18 | 2011 | 5.19 | 0.78 | 6.66 | 7.12 | 2.61 | 6,184 | ||
19 | 2010 | 5.18 | 0.78 | 6.65 | 6.98 | 2.51 | 8,791 | ||
20 | 2019 | 5.18 | 0.88 | 5.87 | 7.93 | 3.47 | 350 | ||
21 | 2008 | 5.11 | 0.72 | 7.12 | 7.30 | 2.90 | 20,253 | ||
22 | 2014 | 5.11 | 0.75 | 6.83 | 8.04 | 3.39 | 2,302 | ||
23 | 2019 | 5.10 | 0.83 | 6.13 | 8.11 | 3.60 | 658 | ||
24 | 2018 | 5.08 | 0.77 | 6.64 | 7.65 | 3.18 | 2,295 | ||
25 | 2018 | 5.08 | 0.80 | 6.34 | 7.92 | 2.90 | 1,187 |
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.